737 - The Dutch Economy in 2003-2005: A Forecast Based on MORKMON

Wetenschappelijke publicatie
Date 1 June 2003

This report presents a forecast for 2003-2005 obtained with MORKMON, the macroeconometric model of the Nederlandsche Bank for the Netherlands, along with three scenarios. The Dutch economy contracts this year 0,4%. This negative growth figure is mainly the result of disappointing growth figures during the last half year. Economic growth is expected to recover cautiously in the next few years following the strenghtening of world economic activity and is projected to average 1,8% in 2005. The three scenarios presented concern a faster recovery of world trade, a further depreciation of the US dollar against the euro and a cooling down of the Dutch housing market. Key words: Dutch economy, macroeconomic forecasts; MORKMON JEL codes: E17