690 - The Dutch Economy in 2002-2004: a Forecast based on MORKMON

Wetenschappelijke publicatie
Date 1 June 2002

This report presents a forecast for 2002-2004 obtained with MORKMON, the macroeconometric model of the Nederlandsche Bank for the Netherlands, along with analyses of the carry-over effects and two scenarios. The Dutch economy will show a considerable growth in the second half of 2002 as a consequence of the recovery of the world economy. Annual GDP-growth in 2002 is only 0,7%. Main reasons for the low growth are the negligible carry-over effects of 2001 and low private consumption and negative business investment growth in 2002. The two scenarios presented concern a labour supply shock and a combined consumer and investment spending shock. Key words: macroeconomic forecasts, Dutch economy JEL codes: E17