699 - Is Eastern Europe ready for the Euro? A Cointegration Analysis for the Maastricht Criteria

Wetenschappelijke publicatie
Date 1 September 2002

This report documents the results of cointegration analyses of the degree of convergence which the economies of the central-eastern european countries (CEECs) have achieved towards the economies of the EMU countries. This cointegration technique is applied to several of the core variables that are important with respect to the Maastricht criteria, namely: inflation, the exchange rate, and the long-term interest rate. The main conclusion that can be drawn from this cointegration analysis is that most of the countries in the first group entering the EU have achieved a considerable degree of convergence for most (but not all) of these EMU criteria variables considered. The countries in the second group of countries to enter the EU in the more distant future, turn out to be lagging behind in the convergence process. Key words: Cointegration, Convergence, EMU JEL codes: C22, F36