711 - The Dutch Economy in 2002-2004: a Forecast based on MORKMON

Wetenschappelijke publicatie
Date 1 December 2002

This report presents a forecast for 2002-2004 obtained with MORKMON, the macroeconometric model of the Nederlandsche Bank for the Netherlands, along with analyses on private consumption and the effects of automatic stabilisers during on economic downturn. Annual GDP-growth in 2002 is only 0.2%. The low economic growth is caused by a staying behind of private consumption growth and the decrease in business investments. This year’s inflation is still high with 3,5%, although it is already much lower than in 2001 when inflation was 4,5%. Key words: macroeconomic forecasts, Dutch economy JEL codes: E17