641 - The Netherlands’ economy in 2000-2002: a forecast based on MORKMON

Wetenschappelijke publicatie
Date 1 November 2000

This report presents a forecast for and a risk analysis of the Netherlands’ economy for the period 2000-2002 using MORKMON, the macroeconomic model of the Nederlandsche Bank. The advantageous economic developments of the past few years in the Netherlands will be prolonged over the forecast period, albeit that inflation rises to considerably higher levels than usual in the past years. The risk analysis focusses on inflation risks. These risks lie mainly in the tense labour market, the price development of raw materials and the euro exchange rate. Also, special attention is given to themes related to financial stability, which is the topic of the December 2000 issue of DNB’s Quarterly Bulletin. Key words: macroeconomic forecasts; MORKMON