672 - The Dutch Economy in 2001-2003 : a Projection with MORKMON

Wetenschappelijke publicatie
Date 1 December 2001

This report presents the projections for the Dutch economy obtained with MORKMON, the macro-econometric model of De Nederlandsche Bank. Economic growth in 2001 is considerably lower than in the past years. After seven years of an average real gdp growth of 3.4% it is this year 0.8%. Also in 2002 growth is only 0.8%. In the course of 2002 growth starts increasing and equals 2.1% in 2003. Inflation in 2002 is far lower in 2001 but still relatively high. The assumptions used for the projection are agreed within the Euro-system. In addition to the projections, attention is paid to risk analyses concerning a stronger decrease in non-oil commodity prices, an improvement or possible quicker deterioration of the international economic climate and the effects of a rise in pension contributions. It has to be stressed that - due to the recent international developments - this projection is surrounded with more uncertainty than usual. Key words: Projection, Dutch Economy JEL codes: E17