602 - Monetary transmission channels, monetary regimes and consumption behaviour

Wetenschappelijke publicatie
Date 1 December 1999

This paper explores the characteristics of the monetary transmission mechanism in the UK, as portrayed by the National Institute’s Domestic Econometric Model (NiDEM). Sensitivity to different monetary policy regimes and to alternative models of consumers’ expenditure is assessed. The methodology adopted quantifies not only the total impact of a temporary monetary shock on the main GDP components, but also the contributions of the various transmission channels. Our analysis supports the evidence that the interest sensitivity of consumption becomes significantly lower when consumers ‘excessively discount’ the future. More interestingly, we note that monetary shocks have relatively large effects on the real economy through their repercussions on fiscal variables; this is more obvious when the exchange rate is fixed and departures from Ricardian equivalence are enhanced. Key words: Consumption, monetary policy regimes, macroeconometric modelling. JEL codes: E21, E52, C5