545 - Revision of the DNB-business cycle indicator

Wetenschappelijke publicatie
Date 28 June 1998

Since 1989, DNB publishes every month a column on the NetherlandsĀ“ economy in the Dutch economist weekly, ESB. This column discusses the latest trends depicted by the DNB business cycle indicator. The indicator has not been changed since its construction and has performed well over the years. Nevertheless, its composition needs some revision, of which this report gives an account. The main conclusions are that the indicator needs: 1. a different method of trend adjustment, which makes a clearer distinction between major cycles and subcycles, and which is less sensitive to new data. 2. a replacement of two of the five underlying series by series with better forecasting properties. (Published in Economisch Statistische Berichten, 4-9-1998, pp. 660-664)