nr 033- Were Verbal Efforts to Support the Euro Effective? A High-Frequency Analysis of ECB Statements

DNB Working Papers
Date 26 April 2005
This paper studies the effects of verbal interventions by European cen- tral bankers on high-frequency euro-dollar exchange rates. We find that ECB verbal interventions have had only small and short-lived effects. Ver- bal interventions which are reported in news report headlines are more likely to be successful, whereas verbal interventions on days with releases of macroeconomic data are less successful. There is no difference in the effects of comments by members of the ECB Executive Board and presi- dents of national central banks. JEL classifications: E58, F31, C14 Keywords: verbal intervention, high-frequency exchange rates, European Central Bank, sign test