371 - Heterogeneity in house price dynamics

DNB Working Papers
Date 27 February 2013
To what extent do house price dynamics differ across market segments? And what determines this heterogeneity? We address these questions by analysing a data set of individual houses and mortgages, based on a survey of about 2,000 Dutch households over the period 2003–2011. We estimate a dynamic panel data model of house price dynamics by means of the Arellano-Bond estimator. Three main empirical results emerge. First, we generally find that house price dynamics imply a convergence towards their long-run equilibrium value, as indicated by a negative serial correlation coefficient and a positive estimated mean reversion coefficient. Second, there is evidence that the housing market in the Netherlands is inefficient. Third, there is important heterogeneity across different market segments. We document that the speed of convergence of house price dynamics and the efficiency of housing markets depends on the geographical location and degree of urbanization, the type and year of construction of a house, the type of mortgage financing and households’ sentiment about the medium-term outlook for income.
Key words: Housing market dynamics, house prices, heterogeneity, survey data, panel analysis.
JEL Codes : D14, G12, R32.