The Dutch business cycle indicator is designed for early detection of turning points in the Dutch business cycle. The indicator consists of two series: historical figures on the business cycle and the cycle's expected development in the near future. The historical business cycle series is based on monthly industrial output data. Given its international orientation, the performance of the Dutch industrial sector is an important measure of the Dutch business cycle, which is strongly influenced by the international environment. The leading business cycle indicator looks up to seven months ahead. It is compiled on the basis of consumer and producer surveys, financial data and export indicators. The current projection uses the latest available data, up to August.
The latest realised figures signal improvement of the business cycle in July of this year (see the blue line in the chart). Thus while the general cyclical outlook remains negative, it is becoming less strongly so. The leading indicator, which currently looks ahead up to February 2014, forsees that the signalled improvement will be sustained (see the red line in the chart). Thus the indicator appears to herald an end to the cyclical cool-down phase that the Netherlands has experienced since the third quarter of 2011. The improvement of the cyclical trend predicted by the indicator was already included in recent projections for the Dutch eonomy by the European Commission, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, De Nederlandsche Bank and others.