Accuracy of projections for the Dutch economy
A recent article in Economisch Statistische Berichten (ESB) on the accuracy of projections for the Dutch economy reveals that these projections include significant prediction errors. Accuracy was assessed for eight institutions based on the absolute difference between the projections and the final figures published by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Figure 1 shows the mean absolute prediction error in projections for economic growth over the period 1998-2015. The mean prediction error for all institutions increases from 0.6 percentage points for the December projections for the year ahead to 1.6 percentage points for the June projections for the year ahead. The underlying differences between the institutions are relatively small, with the difference between the institutions with the highest and lowest prediction errors generally not exceeding 0.2 percentage points.Figure 1: Mean absolute prediction error for GDP growth (1998-2015)
Note: every projection round includes the mean prediction error for the eight institutions reviewed (dot) and the prediction error for the institutions with the highest and lowest prediction errors (lines).