DNB business cycle indicator Standardised deviations from trend Growth in real GDP (year-on-year, interpolated and normalised; up to and including July 2020)
The DNB business cycle indicator marks a turning point in GDP growth in the Netherlands in the spring of 2020. The indicator shows that the low point is behind us, in line with our most recent economic projection (Economic Developments and Outlook, December 2020). Based on developments in the underlying components (up to November), the DNB business cycle indicator projects gradual recovery over the next six months. The leading indicator is negative across the entire period. This means GDP growth (compared to the prior year) will remain below the trend growth for the time being. There is no trace of any pent-up growth (year-on-year) as yet.
The DNB business cycle indicator is designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles. It does not forecast GDP growth. This explains why it does not hint at the expected slowdown in economic growth in the last quarter of 2020 caused by the second wave in the COVID-19 pandemic. The turning point in the current crisis was in the spring of 2020.