DNB Business Cycle Indicator

DNB business cycle indicator Standardised deviations from trend Growth in real GDP (year-on-year, interpolated and normalised; up to and including September 2019)

DNB Business Cycle Indicator

If the indicator is above the horizontal axis, this signals above-trend economic growth. In this stage, the indicator suggests that the output gap – a measure of the difference between actual GDP and potential growth – is widening. Conversely, if the indicator is below the horizontal axis, this signals below-trend economic growth. The turning points for economic growth are at the peaks and troughs of the chart.

Dutch business cycle indicator projects further flattening of economic growth

DNB's Dutch business cycle indicator projects further flattening of GDP growth (y-o-y) in the next nine months. In the third and fourth quarters of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020, the leading indicator falls below the horizontal axis, which suggests that GDP growth will slump to just below trend-based growth.