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Ad Stokman

Ad Stokman

Ad Stokman

Economics and Research Division

Short Bio

June 2022 - present: Research Volunteer, Economics and Research Division, DNB.
June 2022: Retirement.
2006 - May 2022: Researcher, Economics and Research Division, DNB.
1990 - 2005: Researcher/Head Research, DNB.
1980 - 1989: Economist/Head Statistical Analysis Balance-of-payments Dept, DNB.


1995 - Ph.D. Economics, University of Amsterdam
1980 - M.Sc. Econometrics, University of Amsterdam.

Research interests

  • household inflation perceptions
  • animal spirits
  • price setting behavior
  • global economic linkages / FDI

Work in progress

Modeling the production side of the energy transition.

Financial sentiment as a predictor of GDP growth in the US, China, Europe and Japan.

Working Papers

What drives consumer confidence in times of financial crises? Evidence from the Netherlands, 2013, DNB Working Paper No. 394, Download

See my Repec page

Publications in refereed journals

A.C.J. Stokman, 2023, Accelerating inflation expectations of households in the euro area: sources and macroeconomic spending consequences, Applied Economics Letters, forthcoming. Download

Öztürk, B. and A. Stokman, 2019, Animal spirits and household spending in Europe and the US, Economics Letters 185, 108697. Download

Hoeberichts, M. and A. Stokman, 2018, Why price level dispersion went up in Europe after the financial crisis, The World Economy 41(3), 913-923. Download 

Berben, R.-P., and A.C.J. Stokman, 2016, Does deflation affect household spending? The case of the Netherlands, Applied Economics Letters 23(10), 685-689. Download

Jansen, W.J., and A.C.J. Stokman, 2014, International business cycle co-movement: the role of FDI, Applied Economics 46(4), 383-393. Download

Hoeberichts, M. and A.C.J. Stokman, 2010, Price Setting Behaviour in the Netherlands: Results of a Survey, Managerial and Decision Economics 31(2-3), 135-149. Download

Faber, R.P. and A.C.J. Stokman, 2009, A Short History of Price Level Convergence in Europe, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 41(2-3), 461-477. Download 

Fabiani, S., M. Druant, I. Hernando, C. Kwapil, B. Landau, C. Loupias, F. Martins, T. Mathä, R. Sabbatini, H. Stahl, A. Stokman, 2006, What firms' surveys tell about price setting behavior in the euro area, International Journal of Central Banking 2(3), 3-47. Download

Jansen, W.J., and A.C.J. Stokman, 2006, International rent sharing and domestic labour markets: a macroeconomic analysis, Review of World Economics 142(4), 792-813. Download

Schächter, A. and A.C.J. Stokman, 1995, Interest Rate Policy of the Deutsche Bundesbank: An Econometric Analysis for 1975 to 1992, De Economist 143(4), 475-494. Download

Stokman, A.C.J., 1995, Effects of Exchange-Rate Risk on Intra-EC Trade, De Economist 143, 41-54. Download

Publications in books

Jansen, W.J. and A.C.J. Stokman, 2007, Global Linkages through Foreign Direct Investment, in: Roberto Anderton and Filippo di Mauro (eds.), The External Dimension of the Euro Area: Assessing the Linkages, Cambridge University Press, 118-145. Download

Hoeberichts, M.M. and A.C.J. Stokman, 2007, The pricing behaviour of Dutch firms: survey evidence on price stickiness, in S. Fabiani et al. (eds.), Pricing Decisions in the Euro Area: How Firms Set Prices and Why, Oxford University Press, 140-151. Download

Fabiani, Loupias, Druant, Hernando, Kwapil, Landau, Martins, Mathä, Sabbatini, Stahl, Stokman, 2007, Summary of Results for the Euro Area, in S. Fabiani et al. (eds.), Pricing Decisions in the Euro Area: How Firms Set Prices and Why, Oxford University Press, 32-52. Download

Stokman, A.C.J, 2000, The Economic Effects of Wage Moderation in the Euro Area: Simulations with the Multi-country Model EUROMON, in: Conference Proceedings Clingendael, DNB Monetary Monographs no. 17, 75-88.

Stokman, A.C.J. and P.J.G. Vlaar, 1996, Volatility, International Trade and Capital Flows, in: D.E. Fair et al. (eds.), Risk Management in Volatile Financial Markets, Kluwer, 117-132. Download

Other publications

Financieel sentiment vormt goede voorspeller voor bbp-groei een jaar vooruit (Financial sentiment is a good predictor of GDP growth one year ahead), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 27 February 2024. Download

Huizenprijzen voeden inflatieverwachtingen van huishoudens (House prices feed into household inflation expectations), Economisch Statistische Berichten, Kort online, 31 May 2022. Download

Aanwakkerende gevoelsinflatie remt consumptiegroei in Europa (Rising inflation perceptions slow down private consumption growth), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 20 Jan. 2022, no. 107(4805), 21-23. Download

Prijsniveaus in oorspronkelijke twaalf eurolanden divergeren al jaren (Price levels in original twelve euro area countries diverging for years), Economisch Statistische Berichten, Kort online, 4 August 2021. Download

Nederlandse consument sinds juni minder somber (Dutch consumers less pessimistic since June), Economisch Statistische Berichten, Kort online, 1 October 2020. Download

Oplopen gevoelsinflatie drukt consumentenvertrouwen (Rising perceived inflation undermines consumer confidence), Economisch Statistische Berichten, Kort online, 26 July 2019.

Sporen van animal spirits in particuliere consumptie (Signs of animal spirits in private consumption), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 9 May 2019, no. 104(4773), 208-2010.

De prijs van transitie: een analyse van de economische gevolgen van CO2-belasting (The price of transition: an analysis of the economic consequences of CO2 taxation), DNB Occasional Studies no. 8 (2018), with G. Hebbink, L. Berkvens, M. Bun, H. van Kerkhoff, J. Koistinen and G. Schotten. Download

Onderschatting conjunctuur is van alle tijden (Underestimation of the business cycle is a recurrent phenomenon), Economisch Statistische Berichten, August 2018.

Herstel van vertrouwen leidt tot meer geboorten (Recovery of trust leads to a higher birth rate), Economisch Statistische Berichten, April 2018.

Voorspellers onderschatten cycliciteit economie (Forecasters underestimate economic cyclicality), Economisch Statistische Berichten 16 November 2017, no. 102(4755), 552-555, with Bas Butler and Dorinth van Dijk. Download

Statistiek: beta en sigma convergentie prijsniveaus in Europa (Beta and sigma convergence price levels in Europe), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2017, 18 January.

Niet aantal, maar piek asielverzoeken drukt consumentenvertrouwen (Not the number, but the peak of refugee applications lowers consumer confidence), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2017, no. 4747, 119-121.

Oorlog en vertrouwen consument (War and consumer confidence), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2015, no. 99(4697).

Het deflatiespook (The deflation ghost), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2015, no. 100(4712).

Nederlandse groei valt stil in 2012 (Dutch growth drops to zero in 2012), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2012.

Sterk toegenomen samenhang internationale conjunctuur (Tighter international business cycle comovement) Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2011, no. 96(4620).

Oplopende inflatie en economische groei (Rising inflation and economic growth), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2011, no. 4614.

Prijsverschillen in Europa ten tijde van recessies (Price differentials in Europe during recessions), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2011.   

Groeiprognoses op basis van marktinformatie (Growth projections using market information), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2010, no. 4600.

Untangling the ups and downs of consumer confidence, DNB Quarterly Bulletin June 2007, 33-38.

Keynes over val vrije besparingen in Nederland (Keynes on the fall of voluntary savings in the Netherlands), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2007, no. 4508, 235-237.

European price rigidity mapped out, DNB Quarterly Bulletin 2006, no. 1, 77-84.  

Gevolgen van een val van de dollar voor de wereldeconomie (Implications of a fall of the dollar for the world economy), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2005, no. 4454, 76-79, with C.A. Ullersma.

Price differentials in the E(M)U halved in the past forty years, DNB Quarterly Bulletin 2005, no. 2.

Europese prijsconvergentie in vogelvlucht (European price convergence in a nutshell), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2005, no. 4456, 128-131, with R.P. Faber.

Financiële waarden voorspellen economie beter (Financial values forecast the economy better), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2004, no. 4438, 338-340.

Currency practices in Dutch exports and imports (1975-2002), Quarterly Bulletin, 2004, no.3, 49-55.

Duits herstel volgens yieldcurve (German recovery according to the yield curve), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2004, no. 4429, 144.

More synchronous cyclical movements through mergers and acquisitions?, Quarterly Bulletin, 2003, no. 1, 49-56.

Fusies beïnvloeden conjunctuur (Mergers affect the business cycle), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2003, no. 4392, 19.

Getting used to the Euro, Quarterly Bulletin, 2002, no. 3, 51-56.

Smooth euro changeover, higher prices?, Quarterly Bulletin, 2002, no. 1, 51-56.

Farewell to the Guilder, Quarterly Bulletin, 2001, no. 4, 33-41.

Countdown: business girds up for ‘E-day’, Quarterly Bulletin, 2001, no. 3, 55-61.

Risk of substantial price increases due to euro conversion limited, Quarterly Bulletin, 2001, no. 2, 31-38.  

Eurosentiment turns corner, Quarterly Bulletin, 2001, no. 1, 14-18.  

Neutraal omprijzen gaat niet vanzelf (Neutral repricing is not easy), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 2001, no. 4320, 628-630, with P.J.A. van Els and C.K. Folkertsma.  

Survey among Dutch mortgage-holders on the use of mortgage credit, Quarterly Bulletin, 2000, no. 2, 31-44.  

Eurodynamiek verliest momentum: uitkomsten van de negende DNB-euro-enquête (Eurodynamics loses momentum: results from the 9th DNB-euro-survey), Bank- en Effectenbedrijf, 2000, no. 49, 31-33, with W. Bolt and H.M. Prast.

Voorspellers voor de BBP-groei in de VS, Japan en de EU op basis van indicatoren (Leading indicators for GDP growth in the US, Japan and EU), 2000, Onderzoeksrapport WO&E no. 636, with M.C.J. van Rooij.

Wage moderation in the European Union: experiments with the multi-country model EUROMON, 1999, Research Memorandum WO&E no. 588.

Het risico van snel wisselen (The risk of a quick exchange), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 1999, no. 4185, with K. Roszbach.

De dynamiek van de lopende rekening (The dynamics of the current account), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 1998, no. 4174, 824-26.

De rentetermijnstructuur en het monetaire beleid (Yield curve and monetary policy), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 1998, no. 4166, 672-74, with W.B. ten Brinke.

EUROMON: a marco-econometric multi-country model for the EU, De Nederlansche Bank, DNB-Staff Reports, 1997, no. 17, with G.J.J, de Bondt and P.J.A. van Els.

De Nederlandse economie in 1998-2002: een verkenning (The Dutch economy in 1998-2002: a forecast), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 1997, no. 4125, 805-808.

Kosten en baten van de EMU: een tussenbalans (Cost and benefits of EMU: a mid-term review), Economisch Statistische Berichten, 1997, no. 4104, 356-59, with H.M. Prast.

Korte-termijn indicatoren van de bbp-volumegroei voor zeven EU-landen (Short-term leading indicators gdp-growth for seven EU member-countries), 1996, Onderzoeksrapport WO&E no. 459, with M.C.J. van Rooij.

Monetaire onevenwichtigheden en -transmissie (Monetary imnbalances and transmission), Maandschrift Economie, 1994, no. 58, 67-75.

Financiële en Monetaire hervormingen in China (Financial and monetary reforms in China), Bank- en Effectenbedrijf, 1993, no. 42(10), 26-30, with B. Li and W.F.V. Vanthoor.

Latest update: March 2024