266 - Do Natural Resources Attract FDI? Evidence from non-stationary sector level data

DNB Working Papers
Publicatiedatum 30 november 2010

A new and extensive panel of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) at the sector level is used to estimate the determinants of non-resource and resource FDI. Since FDI is I(1), we estimate panel errorcorrection models of FDI with spatial lags for FDI and market potential. Our main result is that subsoil assets boost resource FDI, but crowd out non-resource FDI. The effect on non-resource FDI dominates, so that aggregate FDI is less in resource-rich countries. Spatial lags aggravate this crowding out of nonresource FDI. In addition, we find that (i) resource FDI is mainly vertical whereas other FDI is of the export-fragmentation variety; (ii) trade openness, free trade agreements and institutional quality do not impact non-resource FDI but institutional quality does have a positive effect on resource FDI; and (iii) the short-run dynamics comes mostly from shocks to FDI itself. Our main and ancillary results are robust to different measures of resource reserves and the oil price and to allowing for sample selection bias.

Keywords : outward sector level FDI, subsoil assets, co-integration tests, spatial econometrics, hydrocarbon reserves, external margin, sample selection bias.

JEL Classification: C21, C33, F21, Q33.