The DNB business cycle indicator shows the economic phase towards which the Dutch economy is moving. The dark dots in the figure are the months predicted by the indicator.
The DNB business cycle indicator looks up to six months ahead. The indicator is composed of five components: the interest rate, consumer confidence in the economy, the business activity expected in Germany, the development of new orders from producers and the materials they purchase.
The following figure shows the DNB business cycle indicator in a different way and over a longer period of time. The indicator (yellow line) signals timely changes in the economic growth cycle (blue line). In this way, the lines show the transition from one growth phase to another.
The transition from expansion to deceleration (from decline to recovery) means a reversal in the indicator at the top (in the trough).
The transition from recovery to expansion (from slowdown to decline) means that the indicator intersects the horizontal axis upward (downward).
The DNB business cycle indicator is designed to predict turning points that indicate a transition to a different growth phase. It was not created to predict the GDP growth rate.
26 May 2026
Press release
Cyber and operational risks are currently among the biggest threats to financial stability, caused by a combination of the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) – which is increasing the scale, speed and complexity of cyber attacks – and geopolitical tensions.
Read more Heightened risk of cyber attacks and market corrections due to geopolitical unrest
19 May 2026
Background
Our economy depends heavily on global supply chains. Disruptions in these chains – for example due to geopolitical tensions – leave us vulnerable: prices of goods from abroad may rise, and inflation increase. Read the key findings from our Analysis below.
Read more How supply chain disruptions are driving up inflation and how we can deal with this
19 May 2026
News
Disruptions in global supply chains are driving up inflation in the Netherlands and Europe. Central banks’ efforts to counteract inflation once it has affected the economy entail economic costs and fail to reverse the underlying supply chain disruption.
Read more Disruptions to international supply chains are increasing the risk of inflation and call for European action
13 May 2026
News
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) account for almost half of all bank loans to businesses in the Netherlands, according to new figures being released by DNB for the first time today. However, SMEs often pay a slightly higher interest rate than other businesses.
Read more Almost half of corporate lending goes to SMEs, interest rates slightly higher