DNB publishes official macroeconomic forecasts twice a year. We always forecast two years ahead, resulting in six consecutive forecasts for a given year. The charts below display these consecutive forecasts for four key variables: GDP growth, the government balance, headline inflation, and core inflation.
The figure shows how the forecasts for these key variables for 2025 have evolved over time and how they compare with the realized outcomes. Take GDP growth in 2025 as an example. In the first forecast (Spring 2023), GDP growth was projected at 1.1%. In subsequent rounds, this estimate was gradually revised upward, reaching 1.5% in the Autumn 2024 forecast. Ultimately, the projection stood at 1.7% in the Autumn 2025 forecast.
In general, forecast accuracy improves as the forecast horizon shortens. In other words, projections tend to converge toward the realized outcomes over time. This pattern is clearly visible in the figure.
One notable exception is the Spring 2025 forecast. In this round, the economic outlook for 2025 was revised downward. This is reflected in the figure as a downward shift in the projected GDP growth. This downward revision was driven by the announcement of higher trade tariffs by the U.S. administration, whic created significant uncertainty around global trade and the geopolitical environment during that forecasting round. In the period that followed, it became clear that both the scale and the economic impact of these tariffs were more limited than initially anticipated, this meant that the GDP growth forecast for 2025 was revised upward in Autumn 2025.
12 June 2026
Background
Higher energy prices, uncertainty, and cautious consumers and businesses are holding back growth. Our Spring Projections show that the impact on inflation remains moderate for the time being. Below, we highlight the key developments in five figures.
Read more The five key figures on the Dutch economy
12 June 2026
Background
Inflation and economic growth are linked to energy price movements. That is why we added two scenarios to our Spring Projections: an adverse and a severe scenario. Rather than predicting what will happen, they show what might happen if oil and gas prices stay high for longer and/or rise further.
Read more What if energy prices remain high for longer and uncertainty lingers?
12 June 2026
Press release
Growth in the Dutch economy is expected to be significantly lower this year than in 2025. This is largely due to the war in the Middle East, which has also caused inflation to rise in recent months. This is evident from the Spring Projections, published today by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB).
Read more War in the Middle East is holding back economic growth and driving up inflation
05 June 2026
Background
The US dollar continues to play a major role in the global economy, but a shift is taking place. Central banks are holding relatively fewer dollar reserves than they did ten years ago. This is evident from recent figures from De Nederlandsche Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Read more The dollar is losing ground as a reserve currency, but remains dominant