2024 - The Macroeconomic Effects of Geopolitical Uncertainty

21th November 2024

9:00 - 9:15 Opening address

Klaas Knot (President, De Nederlandsche Bank)

Session I: The Macroeconomic Effects of Fragmentation

Chair: Maurice Bun (Head of Research, DNB)

9:15 – 10:00 Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects

Dongho Song (Johns Hopkins Carey Business School)

Discussant: Lukas Hack (ETH)

10:00 – 10:45 Trading Around Geopolitics

Banu Demir (Oxford and Bilkent University)

Discussant: Antoine Berthou (Banque de France)

10:45 – 11:15 Coffee Break

11:15 – 12:30 Keynote Speech: Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund)

Chair: Marc Roovers (Director of Financial Stability Division, DNB)

12:30 – 14.45 Lunch

Session II: The Economic Implications of Geopolitical Risks

Chair: Razvan Vlahu (Principal Economist, Financial Stability Division, DNB)

14:45 – 15:30 The Price Of War

Gernot J. Müller (University of Tübingen)

Discussant: Marco Pinchetti (Bank of England)

15:30 – 16:15 Do Geopolitical Risks Raise or Lower Inflation?

Dario Caldara (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Discussant: Vivien Lewis (Deutsche Bundesbank)

16:15 – 16:45 Coffee Break

16:45 – 17:45 Panel: Policymaking in times of geopolitical uncertainty

Philip Lane (Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank)

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund)

Chair: Olaf Sleijpen (Chief Economist and Executive Board Member, DNB)

17:45 End of Day 1

22th November 2024

Session III: Geopolitical Tensions and Firms

Chair: Maria Sole Pagliari (Senior Economist, Monetary Policy Division, DNB)

9:30 – 10:15 Trade Fragmentation, Inflationary Pressures and Monetary Policy

Jenny Chan (Bank of England)

Discussant: Kai Arvai (Banque de France)

10:15 – 11:00 Dynamic Effects of Industrial Policies Amidst Geopolitical Tensions

Adam Hal Spencer (University of Bonn)

Discussant: Javier Quintana (Banco de Espana)

11:00 – 11:30 Coffee Break

11:30 – 12:30 Keynote Speech: Are geopolitical risks financial market risks?

Sydney Ludvigson (New York University)

Chair: Peter van Els (Head of Economic Modelling Department, DNB)

12:30 – 13:30 Lunch

Session IV: The Heterogeneous Effects of Geopolitical Risks

Chair: Ralph Verhoeks (Principal Economist, Financial Stability Division, DNB)

13:30 – 14:15 Geopolitical Surprises and Macroeconomic Shocks: A Tale of Two Events

Jetro Anttonen (Bank of Finland)

Discussant: Maximilian Schroeder (ECB)

14:15 – 15:00 Central Banking in Times of High Geopolitical Risk

Alessandro Franconi (University of Pavia)

Discussant: Sebastian Rast (De Nederlandsche Bank)

15:00 End of Conference

21-22 November 2024, 27th Annual Research Conference of the Dutch Central Bank, 

Venue: De Nederlandsche Bank, Spaklerweg 4, Amsterdam