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DNB Business Cycle Indicator

Since the middle of 2022, the Dutch economy is in a downward phase. This is visible in the reference series of the DNB business cycle indicator, which is based on GDP growth (blue line). The leading indicator declines further in the first half of this year (red line). The negative value of the indicator means that GDP growth is below trend growth (on an annual basis). The decline of the indicator levels off however, which could indicate an approaching turning point.

A point of attention with the DNB business cycle indicator is that it is constructed to predict business cycle turning points and not to make predictions for GDP growth.

Business cycle indicator

Data output DNB Business cycle indicator

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