De DNB business cycle indicator (red line) reached a trough in March 2024 and then turned upward. It signals that in March 2024 the upward phase in the economic growth cycle (blue line) has started. Since then, the increase of the indicator has continued. In December 2024 the indicator approaches the horizontal line. That means that GDP growth comes close to trend growth (annual basis).
A point of attention with the DNB business cycle indicator is that it is constructed to predict business cycle turning points and not to make predictions for GDP growth.
© DNB
Data output DNB Business cycle indicator
Based on a new forecast model, DNB expects the Dutch economy to grow by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter. The uncertainty surrounding this forecast is large. In mid-November, CBS publishes the first official measurement of economic growth in the third quarter.
Read more DNB develops new model to forecast short-term economic growth
The current account surplus of the Netherlands’ balance of payments was €24.8 billion in the second quarter of 2024, almost the same as the corresponding period last year, new figures from DNB show.
Read more Dutch current account balance remained almost unchanged despite larger export surplus
‘Our world is currently threatened by increasing fragmentation, both political and economic.’ concluded Olaf Sleijpen in his opening speech at the 8th Annual Macroprudential Conference, organised by the Bundesbank, the Riksbank and De Nederlandsche Bank.
Read more On how geo-economic fragmentation affects financial stability
The Dutch conduit sector is shrinking faster than previously assumed. This is one of the findings of a five-yearly revision of the balance of payments figures, the results of which are being published by DNB today.
Read more Contraction of Dutch conduit sector previously underestimated
