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The reference series of the DNB business cycle indicator has been showing a boom for several months, based on Dutch GDP growth. The last low of this series was in April 2020, in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The leading indicator has followed this development and became positive again from June 2021. Based on the underlying subseries (up to and including March 2022), the leading indicator now points to a new turning point in the coming months. This means that GDP growth is slowing down and will go below trend (on an annual basis).

A point for attention with the DNB business cycle indicator is that it is constructed to predict turning points in the business cycle, and not to predict the development of GDP growth. For example, the slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter of 2021, as a result of the revival of the Covid-19 pandemic, is not reflected in the indicator.

DNB Business Cycle Indicator

Data output DNB Business cycle indicator