The DNB business cycle indicator shows the economic phase towards which the Dutch economy is moving. The dark blue dots in the figure are the months predicted by the indicator. They indicate that the economic growth continues and that the economy will enter an expansion phase.
© DNB
Expansion: economic growth is accelerating and is higher than trend growth.
Slowdown: economic growth is above trend, but slowing down.
Downturn: Economic growth is slowing down and is lower than trend growth.
Recovery: economic growth is below trend but is picking up.
The DNB business cycle indicator looks up to six months ahead. The indicator is composed of five components: the interest rate, consumer confidence in the economy, the business activity expected in Germany, the development of new orders from producers and the materials they purchase.
The following figure shows the DNB business cycle indicator in a different way and over a longer period of time. The indicator (red line) signals timely changes in the economic growth cycle (blue line). In this way, the lines show the transition from one growth phase to another.
The indicator turned upwards last year and crosses the horizontal line in May 2025. This means that the economy enters an expansion phase from that point onward.
© DNB
The transition from expansion to deceleration (from decline to recovery) means a reversal in the indicator at the top (in the trough). The transition from recovery to expansion (from slowdown to decline) means that the indicator intersects the horizontal axis upward (downward). The DNB business cycle indicator is designed to predict tipping points that indicate a transition to a different growth phase. It was not created to predict the GDP growth rate.
Data output DNB Business cycle indicator
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