DNB Business Cycle Indicator
In the middle of 2022, the Dutch economy has turned around. This is visible in the reference series of the DNB business cycle indicator, which is based on GDP growth (blue line). The leading indicator has been indicating this reversal for some time. The indicator continues to decline in the coming six months and will become negative from April 2023 (red line). This means that the business cycle is deteriorating, with GDP growth possibly below trend (on an annual basis).
A point of attention with the DNB business cycle indicator is that it is constructed to predict business cycle turning points and not to make predictions for GDP growth.
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