DNB Business Cycle Indicator
The DNB business cycle indicator marks a turning point in GDP growth in the Netherlands in the summer of 2020. The indicator shows that the low point is behind us. Based on developments in the underlying components (up to August), the DNB business cycle indicator projects further recovery over the next six months. The leading indicator is positive from November onwards. This means that GDP growth (compared to the prior year) exceeds its trend growth signaling minor pent-up growth (year-on-year).
The DNB business cycle indicator is designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles. It does not forecast GDP growth. This explains why it does not hint at the slowdown in economic growth in the last quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 caused by the second and third wave in the COVID-19 pandemic. The turning point in the current crisis was in the summer of 2020.