Over the past year, public trust in financial institutions has not weakened during the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. By contrast, trust in other key players in the Dutch economy and society has not emerged unscathed from the crisis.Read more
The state of the Dutch economy
What is the current state of our economy? As an economic advisor, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) closely monitors this. Twice a year, we release our forecasts for the Dutch economy: the Economic Developments and Outlook. In between, we use the DNB business cycle indicator to keep our finger on the pulse of the economy. We also regularly publish studies, news releases and speeches on current economic topics.
Economic Developments and Outlook
Every six months, we present our expectations for the Dutch economy in the our Economic Developments and Outlook . In doing so, we not only deal with economic growth and underlying expenditure categories, such as consumption, investment and exports. We also discuss developments in such areas as inflation, the labour market, the housing market and public finances.
Dutch economy to contract slightly in early 2021, followed by robust upswing in the summer (April 2021 interim projection)
There will be two sides to this year, according to our interim projection. As a result of the COVID-19 containment measures, 2021 began with a small economic contraction. From the summer onwards, however, we expect a substantial recovery once the measures are gradually relaxed. Overall, the Dutch economy (GDP) will grow by an estimated 2.2% in 2021, followed by projected growth of 4.2% in 2022.
Unemployment will rise, increasing to 4.6% in 2021 and 5.3% in 2022. While public finances will deteriorate, they will not worsen to the extent we previously forecast. In both years, government debt should remain just below the 60% threshold stipulated in the Maastricht Treaty.
This interim projection is an updated version of our December forecast and, as such, it is not comprehensive. In December, we assumed that the partial lockdown in the Netherlands would slowly be relaxed from the beginning of 2021. Given the fact that the measures have so far remained in place, however, a revised projection was called for. In June, DNB will publish a new Economic Developments and Outlook.
The DNB business cycle indicator
The DNB business cycle indicator allows us to detect turnarounds in trends for the Dutch economy in good time. We use it to look up to six months ahead. The aspects we study are consumer confidence in economic conditions, business activity we expect in Germany, new manufacturing orders, manufacturing materials procurement and interest rates.
Get your hands on the controls of the Dutch economy
We prepare our projections for the Dutch economy using a macroeconomic model named DELFI. We also use it to assess the consequences for the Dutch economy of changes in economic policy or economic conditions. The DELFI tool allows you get your hands on the controls of the Dutch economy. For example, you can see the effects of lower or higher oil prices, more or less world trade, or higher or lower wages.
Publications about the state of our economy
In addition to the Economic Developments and Outlook and our business indicator, we also regularly publish studies, news releases and speeches on current economic topics. You can find this under ‘Interesting articles’ on this page, under ‘Publications’ or by using the search bar.