Following a historical contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020, the Dutch economy should recover strongly and rapidly, starting in the second quarter of 2021. This is projected to result in a GDP growth rate of 3.0% in 2021. Robust recovery is projected to continue into 2022, posting...Read more
The state of the Dutch economy
What is the current state of our economy? As an economic advisor, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) closely monitors this. Twice a year, we release our forecasts for the Dutch economy: the Economic Developments and Outlook. In between, we use the DNB business cycle indicator to keep our finger on the pulse of the economy. We also regularly publish studies, news releases and speeches on current economic topics.
March projections: inflation 6.7% in 2022
In mid-March 2022, we made new projections. The uncertainty is great because of the war in Ukraine. We expect the Dutch economy to grow by 3.5% this year and by 1.5% next year. The growth in 2022 is due to the very strong economic recovery in late 2021 after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. Inflation is expected to be 6.7% this year and 2.8% in 2023. If the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine are more severe and longer-lasting, this will lead to higher energy prices and unrest on financial markets. If that is the case, economic growth will slow down to 2.3% this year and 0.5% in 2023. In this scenario, inflation would rise as high as 9.5%, only to fall back to 3.4% in 2023.
Economic Developments and Outlook
Every six months, we present our expectations for the Dutch economy in the our Economic Developments and Outlook . In doing so, we not only deal with economic growth and underlying expenditure categories, such as consumption, investment and exports. We also discuss developments in such areas as inflation, the labour market, the housing market and public finances.
Swift recovery of Dutch economy expected after COVID-19 crisis
Following a historical contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.7% in 2020, the Dutch economy is expected to recover strongly and rapidly, starting in the second quarter of 2021. GDP is expected to have grown by 3.0% in 2021, 3.7% in 2022 and 1.9% in 2023, on the assumption that the social distancing measures will gradually be relaxed further, and that they will no longer be necessary by 2022. Based on our projections, by the end of 2021 GDP will be higher than just before the pandemic, and the economy will recover much faster than after the 2008 financial crisis.
If support measures are scaled back after the third quarter of 2021, employment will initially decline slightly, only to pick up significantly over the course of 2022. At the same time, the improved economic outlook will prompt many more people to look for work. Unemployment is expected to rise as a result, from 3.6% in 2021 to 4.5% in 2022. As the economy recovers further, unemployment should fall back to 4.1% in 2023. Inflation is projected to go up from 1.1% in 2020 to 1.5 % in 2021, due to higher oil prices. Inflation should remain at 1.5% in 2022 and rise to 1.8% in 2023, in line with increasing labour market tightness.
The DNB business cycle indicator
The DNB business cycle indicator allows us to detect turnarounds in trends for the Dutch economy in good time. We use it to look up to six months ahead. The aspects we study are consumer confidence in economic conditions, business activity we expect in Germany, new manufacturing orders, manufacturing materials procurement and interest rates.
Get your hands on the controls of the Dutch economy
We prepare our projections for the Dutch economy using a macroeconomic model named DELFI. We also use it to assess the consequences for the Dutch economy of changes in economic policy or economic conditions. The DELFI tool allows you get your hands on the controls of the Dutch economy. For example, you can see the effects of lower or higher oil prices, more or less world trade, or higher or lower wages.
Publications about the state of our economy
In addition to the Economic Developments and Outlook and our business indicator, we also regularly publish studies, news releases and speeches on current economic topics. You can find this under ‘Interesting articles’ on this page, under ‘Publications’ or by using the search bar.
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