Global trade in goods, which was hit hard at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, has now recovered. The recovery is much faster than during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Global trade in goods has proved resilient and is currently contributing to the global recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.Read more
The state of the Dutch economy
What is the current state of our economy? As an economic advisor, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) closely monitors this. Twice a year, we release our forecasts for the Dutch economy: the Economic Developments and Outlook. In between, we use the DNB business cycle indicator to keep our finger on the pulse of the economy. We also regularly publish studies, news releases and speeches on current economic topics.
Economic Developments and Outlook
Every six months, we present our expectations for the Dutch economy in the our Economic Developments and Outlook . In doing so, we not only deal with economic growth and underlying expenditure categories, such as consumption, investment and exports. We also discuss developments in such areas as inflation, the labour market, the housing market and public finances.
Netherlands in deep economic crisis, but less severe than previously feared (outlook December 2020)
In the first two quarters of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic dealt the Dutch economy a severe blow. However, much of the loss in gross domestic product (GDP) was recovered in the third quarter. We anticipate an economic downturn of 4.3% in 2020. Gradual recovery will set in from 2021 onwards as GDP expands by almost 3% per annum in both 2021 and 2022. Employment is being hit hard in 2020, and will be even more so in 2021. Unemployment is expected to rise to an average of 4.0% of the labour force this year and peak at an average of 6.5% in 2021. Given the greater-than-usual uncertainty surrounding our projections, we have prepared a mild and a severe scenario in addition to the baseline projection. Moreover, we also analysed the impact on the Dutch banking sector in the severe scenario and an extra, extremely severe, scenario. Our next projection will be published in June 2021.
June 2020 issue of our Economic Developments and Outlook
The DNB business cycle indicator
The DNB business cycle indicator allows us to detect turnarounds in trends for the Dutch economy in good time. We use it to look up to six months ahead. The aspects we study are consumer confidence in economic conditions, business activity we expect in Germany, new manufacturing orders, manufacturing materials procurement and interest rates.
Get your hands on the controls of the Dutch economy
We prepare our projections for the Dutch economy using a macroeconomic model named DELFI. We also use it to assess the consequences for the Dutch economy of changes in economic policy or economic conditions. The DELFI tool allows you get your hands on the controls of the Dutch economy. For example, you can see the effects of lower or higher oil prices, more or less world trade, or higher or lower wages.
Publications about the state of our economy
In addition to the Economic Developments and Outlook and our business indicator, we also regularly publish studies, news releases and speeches on current economic topics. You can find more of these publications using the search function on this website.