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The state of the Dutch economy

Inflation will fall from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2024. Economic growth is low at 0.1% in 2023, but should edge up to 0.3% in 2024. These figures were revealed in our December 2023 Autumn Projections.

Low inflation

After a record high of 11.6% in 2022, inflation fell to 4.1% in 2023. We expect a further drop to 2.9% in 2024, hitting closer to the 2% target at 2.2% by 2025. The main causes are lower energy prices and central bank interest rate hikes.

Want to know more about inflation? Find more information here

Low economic growth

Our economy grew by 0.1% in 2023. This is sharply lower than in 2022, when growth was extra strong thanks to the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. In the years ahead, growth will be slightly higher, at 0.3% in 2024 and 1% in 2025.

The main causes of the economy's cooling are the downturn in global trade and the European Central Bank's monetary policy, which is needed to fight high inflation.

Read more about ECB policy

Public sector deficit to rise sharply in the coming years

The general government budget deficit is still limited to 0.9% of GDP in 2023. However, this situation will deteriorate rapidly in the years ahead, partly because more interest has to be paid on government debt. The deficit will then increase towards the EU threshold of 3%.

Unemployment rises somewhat

Unemployment remains low at 3.6% in 2023, but rises to 4% in 2024. Wages rise sharply, by 5.9% in 2023 and 5.7% in 2024.

Our Spring and Autumn Projections

DNB issues projections for the Dutch economy over the current and the next two years. We develop them together with the European Central Bank (ECB) and other central banks in the euro area. The ECB aggregates national projections into macroeconomic projections for the euro area as a whole. This is how we contribute to the ECB’s decision-making on monetary policy. And every six months we present our national projections and analyses in the Spring and Autumn Projections. Based on our projections and analyses, we provide advice on economic issues to the government and other policymakers. Our Spring and Autumn Projections and our studies provide insight into the basis of our advice.


What is the short-term outlook?

The DNB business cycle indicator allows us to identify changes in Dutch economic developments up to six months ahead. We look at consumer confidence in economic conditions, expected business activity in Germany, new manufacturing orders, manufacturing materials procurement and interest rates.

The DNB business cycle indicator (the red line in the figure) turned upwards in March 2024. This means the indicator suggests the economic cycle has bottomed out and that the upward phase of the growth cycle has started.

Read more: Turnaround in the economy

Business cycle indicator

How do we prepare our projections?

We prepare our projections for the Dutch economy with a macroeconomic model named DELFI. We also use it to assess the consequences for the Dutch economy of changes in economic policy or economic conditions. Would you like to try this out, too? Get behind the controls of the Dutch economy with our DELFI-Tool and discover, for example, the consequences of higher energy prices or higher wages.

Publications about the state of our economy

We regularly publish studies, news releases and speeches on current economic topics. You can find these under ‘Interesting articles’ on this page, under ‘Publications’ or by using the search option.

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