The state of the Dutch economy

After a record high of 11.6% in 2022, inflation fell to 4.1% in 2023. We expect a further drop to 2.8% in 2024, followed by a gradual decline to just below 2% in 2026. The main drivers of this development are lower energy prices and central bank interest rate hikes.

The Dutch economy grew by 0.2% in 2023. After a period of stagnation, the economy is now heading for a soft landing as it enters a moderate growth path. In the coming years, growth will be slightly higher, at 0.5% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025 and 2026.

The main reasons for the economic slowdown are the downturn in global trade and the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), which is necessary to fight high inflation.

The general government budget deficit was still limited to 0.9% of GDP in 2023. This is expected to rise sharply in the coming years, partly because more interest will have to be paid on the government’s own debt. The deficit is forecast to increase towards the EU threshold of 3%. 

Slight rise in unemployment

The unemployment rate is projected to increase marginally, from 3.6% in 2023 to 4.0% in 2026. Wages will continue to rise, by 6.0% in 2024 and an average of 3.7% in 2025. 

Our Spring and Autumn Projections

DNB publishes projections for the Dutch economy for the current year and the next two years. We create these together with the European Central Bank (ECB) and other central banks in the euro area. The ECB aggregates national projections into macroeconomic projections for the euro area as a whole. This is how we contribute to the ECB’s decision-making on monetary policy. Every six months, we also share our national forecasts and analyses by publishing our Spring and Autumn Projections. Using this data, we provide advice on economic issues to the government and other policymakers. Our Spring and Autumn Projections provide insight into the basis of this advice, as do our studies.

We prepare our projections for the Dutch economy using a macroeconomic model called DELFI. We also use this model to assess the consequences of changes in economic policy or economic conditions. Want to try your hand at creating your own projections? Get behind the controls with our DELFI Tool and find out how things like higher energy prices and wage increases affect the Dutch economy.

DNB uses different models to assess the short-term economic prospects.

With DFROG, the nowcasting model of DNB, we make an estimate of the current development of the Dutch economy.

With the DNB business cycle indicator turning points in the Dutch economy can be signalled timely. A turning point signals a change in the growth phase of the economy.