The rise in the cross-sectoral dispersion of earnings expectations during COVID-19

This paper documents a durable increase in the cross-sectoral dispersion of earnings expectations during the COVID-19 crisis. An empirical analysis shows that the rise in dispersion of earnings forecasts can be explained by the introduction of lockdown measures, which had a particularly adverse impact on the travel sector. Accordingly, in terms of earnings expectations, countries that are relatively independent from the travel sector were least affected by a tightening of lockdowns. At the same time, the start of vaccination campaigns has been a game changer: more stringent lockdown measures added far less to the cross-sectoral dispersion in earnings expectations once vaccines started to be rolled out in late 2020. Going forward, the dispersion in earnings expectations remains elevated, implying that analysts may expect the effects of the crisis to be of a rather structural nature.

Keywords: COVID-19; Financial markets; Earnings expectations; Cross-sectoral dispersion; Lockdown measures; Vaccinations
JEL codes E44; G10; G12

Working paper no. 724