DNB maintains the countercyclical capital buffer at 2%

The countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) is intended to increase banks’ resilience when cyclical risks build up and to release the buffer once risks materialize. This helps limit the impact of a crisis on the real economy. As outlined in the framework, DNB aims for a CCyB of 2% in a standard risk environment. This refers to an environment in which cyclical systemic risks are neither particularly high nor particularly low. As part of its assessment of cyclical risks, DNB uses indicators with strong predictive power for the financial-economic cycle in the Netherlands (see dashboard in Figure 1). This assessment is not mechanical and is made through guided discretion, where developments in the dashboard are supplemented with additional insights or analysis where relevant. 

Risk assessment

Our analysis shows that cyclical systemic risks in the Netherlands are currently neither particularly high nor low. Most indicators in the dashboard (see figure 1 below this release) are around typical levels from a historical perspective (between the 25th and 75th percentile), consistent with a standard risk environment. While indicators related to credit remain relatively low from a historical perspective, other indicators such as asset prices remain at more elevated levels. Furthermore, the Dutch banking sector remains financially robust, and we see no signs that cyclical systemic risks are materializing.

DNB therefore concludes that the current cyclical risk landscape remains consistent with a standard risk environment, in line with the current CCyB level of 2%. This level is higher than implied by the Basel buffer guide based solely on the credit-to-GDP gap, which remains at 0%. However, as explained in the framework, DNB bases its decision on a broader analysis than solely the credit-to-GDP gap. Based on the currently available information, DNB does not expect significant changes in the risk outlook in the near term that would warrant a change in the CCyB. DNB will reassess the cyclical risk outlook and the level of the CCyB in March 2026.

Further clarification individual indicators

The macro-economic environment remains consistent with a standard risk environment. Economic growth in the Netherlands is positive and unemployment remains around historically low levels, as the economy has so far remained resilience in the face of elevated uncertainty and geopolitical tensions (see also the report of the FSC [in Dutch]). Credit growth in the Netherlands remains moderate by historical standards, reflected in the negative Basel credit-to-GDP gap and muted household credit growth. While nominal bank lending has continued to increase in recent months, this feeds through only gradually in the indicators in the dashboard.

Developments in asset prices remain consistent with sustained elevated valuations. Real house prices continue to rise at a robust pace (+12%), even as the rate of increases has recently moderated somewhat. Equity prices have also expanded further (+13.6%), and indicators related to risk premia and asset valuations in general continue to signal strong risk appetite (as also discussed in the OFS Autumn 2025). For example, credit risk premia currently hover around historical lows (6th percentile). Persistently elevated risk appetite could indicate a further buildup of cyclical systemic risks. 

Finally, the Dutch banking sector continues to maintain solid (capital) buffers, while robust profitability also helps to support the resilience of Dutch banks going forward. Despite elevated economic uncertainty, credit losses have remained contained, with the share of non-performing loans remaining at low levels historically. 

Figure 1 – CCyB dashboard 2025Q4

Notes: The color coding indicates the position of an indicator in its historical distribution (1997-present, bank lending margins from 2003). Blue indicates a value <25th percentile, green a value between the 25th and 75th percentile, and red a value >75th percentile. For the indicator “unemployment rate” and all indicators in the category “risk premiums” the color coding is inverted, meaning low values are equivalent to higher risks. All numbers are as of December 9, 2025.

Data sources: CBS, Datastream, DNB, ECB, FRED, OECD, DNB calculations.