DNB maintains the countercyclical capital buffer at 2%

The countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) is intended to increase banks’ resilience when cyclical risks build up and to release the buffer once risks materialize. This helps limit the impact of a crisis on the real economy. As outlined in the framework, DNB aims for a CCyB of 2% in a standard risk environment. This refers to an environment in which cyclical systemic risks are neither particularly high nor particularly low. As part of its assessment of cyclical risks, DNB uses indicators with strong predictive power for the financial-economic cycle in the Netherlands (see figure 1 below this release). This assessment is not mechanical and is made through guided discretion, where developments in the dashboard are supplemented with additional insights or analysis where relevant. 

Risk assessment

Our analysis shows that cyclical systemic risks in the Netherlands are currently neither particularly high nor low. Most indicators in the dashboard (see figure 1) are around typical levels from a historical perspective (between the 25^th and 75^th percentile), consistent with a standard risk environment. Furthermore, the Dutch banking sector remains financially robust, and we see no signs that cyclical systemic risks are materializing.

DNB therefore concludes that the current cyclical risk landscape remains consistent with a standard risk environment, in line with the current CCyB level of 2%. This level is higher than implied by the Basel buffer guide based solely on the credit-to-GDP gap, which remains at 0%. However, as explained in the framework, DNB bases its decision on a broader analysis than solely the credit-to-GDP gap. Based on the currently available information, DNB does not expect significant changes in the risk outlook in the near term that would warrant a change in the CCyB. DNB will reassess the cyclical risk outlook and the level of the CCyB in June 2026.

Further clarification individual indicators

The macro-economic environment remains consistent with a standard risk environment. Looking ahead, economic uncertainty remains elevated due to international developments and persistent geopolitical tensions, notably in the Middle East.

After several quarters of robustly expanding nominal credit growth, real credit growth to Dutch households has turned positive, as can be seen in the dashboard (figure 1). Credit growth in the Netherlands remains nevertheless subdued from a historical perspective, as seen in the negative Basel credit-to-GDP gap. Overall, DNB sees no heightened cyclical risks stemming from credit developments nor of constraints in the supply of credit. 

Asset price developments remain consistent with a picture of sustained elevated valuations and the potential build-up of cyclical risks. Real estate prices continue to increase at a robust rate, both in the residential (+10%) and commercial sector (+5%). On financial markets, risk premia and asset valuations likewise continue to indicate strong risk appetite, notwithstanding recent volatility stemming from tensions in the Middle East.

Finally, the Dutch banking sector continues to maintain solid (capital) buffers, while robust profitability also helps to support the resilience of Dutch banks going forward. Despite elevated economic uncertainty, credit losses have remained contained, with the share of non-performing loans at low levels historically. 

Figure 1 – CCyB dashboard 2026K1

Notes: The color coding indicates the position of an indicator in its historical distribution (1997-present, bank lending margins from 2003). Blue indicates a value <25th percentile, green a value between the 25th and 75th percentile, and red a value >75th percentile. For the indicator “unemployment rate” and all indicators in the category “risk premiums” the color coding is inverted, meaning low values are equivalent to higher risks. All numbers are as of March 25, 2025.

Data sources: CBS, Datastream, DNB, ECB, FRED, OECD, DNB calculations.