The Dutch economy in five figures: where do we stand?

Despite trade tensions and uncertainty, the Dutch economy is growing more strongly than anticipated. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the Netherlands is projected to rise by 1.7% in 2025. Households are spending more thanks to higher wages, and the government is also spending more. And despite higher US trade tariffs, world trade continues to flow at a good clip. Companies pushed imports forward to remain ahead of the tariffs. This boosted Dutch exports in 2025, but we do not expect this effect to continue in the coming years.  We expect GDP growth to slow down to about 1.2% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027.

3% inflation in 2025, still relatively high

Inflation is projected to fall from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2027. This is still higher than the euro area average. The cause is mainly homegrown: domestic demand for products and services is running into the limits of production capacity. In other words, demand for products and workers in the Netherlands is relatively strong, which drives up prices and wages.

After this year, house prices will rise less sharply

In 2026 and 2027, house prices will rise by about 4%. In recent years, house prices rose by more than 8%. So housing remains expensive. House prices will continue to rise faster than household income and the amount people can borrow. This means that owner-occupied houses will be somewhat less affordable. By 2027, it is estimated that only one in three households will have enough income to finance an average home with a mortgage loan. By comparison, almost half of households earned enough to buy an average house in 2019. More often than before, households therefore need extra savings, greater home equity or financial support from family. 

4.4% unemployment in 2027, labour market to cool slightly

The number of job vacancies is set to decrease slightly, and unemployment will rise from 3.9% this year to 4.4% in 2027. Some tightness in the labour market remains, with a number of sectors still facing staff shortages. As a result, wages will rise by 5.3% in 2025, meaning households have more to spend and can save more, for instance to pay off their mortgage loan or to buy a home. Wage growth will gradually ease in the coming years. 

1.6% growth in 2026 and 2027 if government addresses bottlenecks

Higher trade tariffs, expensive energy, unresolved nitrogen emissions challenges, an overloaded energy grid and uncertain policies. Companies hoping to invest are running into these problems. The recent report published by Peter Wennink provides the new Cabinet with clear guidance on how to improve the business climate. This is essential to ensure the Netherlands’ earning power in the long term. 

In an alternative scenario in the Autumn Projections, we show what would happen if the government were to make smart choices and tackle these structural chokepoints: households and businesses would become more confident in the economy. Households would then spend more – including some of their savings – and companies would invest more, for instance in machinery and equipment upgrades for more efficient production, and in new construction projects, such as new factories and housing.  Productivity growth would pick up, which would boost earning power. GDP growth in this scenario would then be 1.6% in 2026 and 2027, which is about 0.4 percentage points higher on average than in the projections.

Conclusion: The economy is growing despite uncertainty. If the government tackles a number structural bottlenecks, it will pay off in additional growth in the coming years.