Autumn Projections 2025

Economic growth 

The Dutch economy is showing remarkable growth in an uncertain world. Economic growth is projected to be 1.7% for 2025, which can mainly be ascribed to government spending and world trade. Public sector employment has grown more than expected. Public expenditures have thus contributed to the higher economic growth. World trade growth is projected to increase, despite higher US trade tariffs. This has proved beneficial to the open Dutch economy, as evidenced by increasing exports. However, trade policy uncertainty remains high. Geopolitical tensions are another source of uncertainty. After this year, GDP growth is projected to be lower. Uncertainty may have a delayed effect on the economy, with the full impact not yet visible. 

Business investment 

Businesses find it difficult to respond to the uncertain economic environment at home and abroad. They face higher trade tariffs and changing competitive conditions on the world market. Dutch companies have been struggling with relatively high energy and labour costs for some time already. They also face policy uncertainty and constraints on their home turf due to unresolved nitrogen emissions challenges, grid congestion and labour market tightness, all of which inhibit business investment. Following contraction in 2025, business investment is projected to be low next year too. In an alternative scenario, we show that addressing investment bottlenecks decreases uncertainty and leads to higher growth in investment and the economy. 

Inflation 

Inflation is set to fall but will remain relatively high because of economic tightness. It is projected to decrease from 3.0% this year to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. This means inflation in the Netherlands will remain higher than the euro area average in the coming years, although the gap is narrowing. Inflation in the Netherlands can mainly be attributed to homegrown factors. Excess demand in the Dutch economy, for instance, creates upward pressure on the prices of goods and services. In addition, labour market tightness is showing no signs of easing. As a result, wages are also rising more strongly here than in the euro area. Unemployment is set to rise in the coming years, meaning that labour supply and demand will become more balanced. As a result, wage growth will gradually ease. Inflation caused by foreign factors is limited in 2025 and 2026 due to lower energy prices on the world market, a stronger euro and - partly as a result - moderate price increases of imported goods. 

Wages and savings 

Households are seeing their real income grow in line with wage growth, which is higher than the rate of inflation on average. This income growth boosts growth in private consumption. At the same time, households will continue to save considerably in the coming years, and many will use their savings to pay off their mortgage or to purchase a home. While house prices will rise less quickly in 2026-2027, they will still outpace household income over the projection horizon. 

Download the Autumn Projections 2025 below (English version forthcoming).