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Models for analyzing and assessing inflation developments

For a more general and broader assessment of inflation and its drivers in the Netherlands and the euro area, we use VAR-models and Phillips curve models (with and without regime-switching; with alternative measures of slack) and unobserved components models. The unobserved components model identifies the trend, seasonal and irregular components and is used to provide estimates of underlying trends and cycles in the data. For recent work on the assessment of inflation see the links below.

  • Bonam, D., G. Galati, I. Hindrayanto, M. Hoeberichts, A. Samarina and I. Stanga, 2019, Inflation in the euro area since the Global Financial Crisis, DNB Occasional Study 3, September 2019 (link
  • Hindrayanto, I., Samarina, A. and I. Stanga, 2019, Is the Phillips curve still alive? Evidence from the euro area. Economics Letters 174, 149-152 (link
  • Bonam, D., J. de Haan and D. van Limbergen, 2018, Time-varying wage Phillips curves in the euro area with a new measure for labor market slack, DNB Working Paper 587 (link)