Growth forecasts based on financial sentiment
Financial sentiment dynamics provide useful information for short-term growth forecasting, especially in times of economic distress.
For the Netherlands, this so-called financial sentiment indicator (FiSI) is based on developments in stock prices, capital market and money market interest rates differentials, corporate bond yields, real money growth rates (M1, M3) and a measure of financial stress, along with consumer sentiment. The latter is of interest as it embodies animal spirits behavior. The forecasting horizon is one year.
FiSI’s for other countries and country group are under construction, namely for the US, China, Japan, Europe and the five largest EU-member countries (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). Further information on the FSI and the role of animal spirits can be found in the links below.
- Ad Stokman, 2004, Financiële waarden voorspellen economie beter, Economisch Statistische Berichten 4438 (link) (only available in Dutch)
- Ad Stokman, 2010, Groeiprognoses op basis van marktinformatie, Economisch Statistische Berichten 4600 (link) (only available in Dutch)
- Öztürk, B. and A. Stokman, 2019, Animal spirits and household spending in Europe and the US, Economics Letters 185 (link)