A changing landscape and supply chain dependencies
Institutions are facing a rapidly changing fraud landscape, including due to the rise of artificial intelligence. Among other things, institutions mention the rise of synthetic identities and their growing need for a wider range of data sources and features in fraud detection, which enable them to identify new and evolving fraud patterns more quickly. The institutions examined also highlighted the importance of, and the need for, efficient and structured cooperation within the chain, as is also aimed for in public-private initiatives such as the Integrated Approach to Online Fraud (Integrale Aanpak Online Fraude). Standardisation of information requests and interventions across institutions can lead to faster follow‑up of fraud signals. Such standardisation has already reached a greater level of maturity in the United Kingdom and could serve as an example.
Many institutions also point out that parties outside the financial sector, such as social media platforms, telecoms providers and web hosting firms, could make a significant contribution to preventing and combating fraud through information sharing and interventions. This topic is also discussed within the Integrated Approach to Online Fraud. Online scams often take place at an earlier stage, before a payment is processed by a bank or payment institution. This means institutions can typically only intervene once a victim has been targeted and the transaction is (almost) carried out. The Dutch Banking Association (NVB) has recently called on, among others, major social media platforms to take a more active role, for instance by taking swifter action against fake advertisements and misleading accounts. Although we recognise the importance of closer cooperation, in this exploratory examination we have focused exclusively on the role and working methods of banks and payment institutions subject to our supervision. The observations highlighted in this news item therefore relate primarily to these institutions.
Detection and data – different model choices, with ongoing development primarily consisting of fine-tuning
During our examination, we have identified several methods that institutions use to set up and (further) develop their fraud detection systems. They position and combine business rules and machine learning applications in various ways: some use machine learning primarily for trend detection and rely on business rules to capture new developments, while others use machine learning specifically to identify new patterns and can therefore respond more quickly to changing methods. These institutions use business rules as a safeguard against types of fraud that occur over a longer period of time.
The detection model architecture opted for also varies: some institutions use specialist niche models (multiple models for different risks/segments), while others use a single, more comprehensive model.
It is also noticeable that once institutions have chosen a particular approach, they tend to stick to it. Against the backdrop of rapid developments in the fields of data analysis and artificial intelligence, we note that, in some cases, this means that only limited attention is paid to exploring new, alternative or complementary detection methods. In addition, institutions differ in the extent to which they periodically reconsider their chosen model strategies and incorporate new applications into their detection approach. In our view, periodic validation can contribute to the further development and strengthening of detection methods.
At some institutions, we have observed more advanced professionalism in the use of data, for example by expanding and refining the feature set and utilising new data points to assess fraud risk indicators, with the aim of identifying patterns more quickly. It is also noticeable that fraud detection systems are sometimes limited, partly through informal working arrangements, by the available operational capacity to handle alerts. As a result, institutions run the risk of failing to detect potentially fraudulent transactions. Although we did not find in this exploratory examination that institutions actually missed signals, we note that, at one institution, further risk appetite development and management contributed positively to the effectiveness of fraud detection and operational capacity.
Rejecting potentially fraudulent transactions and alerting customers
Fraudsters can be very persuasive and often try to convince their victims to ignore warnings from their bank. Several banks have indicated that this makes it difficult for bank staff to prevent customers from carrying out a transaction once they have been influenced by a fraudster. Banks also stated that, in principle, they are obliged by law to process a transaction, while at the same time they have a special duty of care towards customers if there is a concrete suspicion of fraud. The examination revealed that several banks refuse potentially fraudulent transactions initiated by customers, even when the customer insists on proceeding with the transaction. Although this may initially lead to friction, customers are often very glad a few days later that the fraud was prevented. The examination thus shows that institutions take different approaches to balancing the execution of a customer’s instructions with the need to prevent customers from falling victim to fraud.
We also see that banks are trying to warn their customers in a variety of ways. For example, they send them push notifications if transactions carry a higher risk of fraud, and they frequently communicate this in updates and large-scale advertising campaigns. However, banks indicated that it is difficult to determine how effective these measures are, and we acknowledge that this is a challenge. One institution stood out for its ability to track the percentage of cases in which customers cancel transactions after receiving a push notification and a personalised warning (generated by a chatbot). Other institutions are less able to measure effectiveness.