The state of the Dutch economy

Economic growth is being slowed down by geopolitical tensions and import tariffs, which are causing increased economic uncertainty and lower global trade growth. In particular, business investment and exports fall as a result.

These projections assume that current US import tariffs of 10% on foreign goods remain in place, and that the EU will refrain from taking retaliatory measures. The Dutch export sector is particularly affected by reduced market access and the stronger euro exchange rate.

DNB also prepared two alternative scenarios in addition to the baseline scenario. In the mild scenario – with lower tariffs and less uncertainty – GDP growth is slightly higher. In the severe scenario – where countries impose higher and reciprocal tariffs – Dutch economic growth slows sharply and grinds to a virtual halt in 2026.

Government spending and consumption support growth

Government spending is an important contributor to economic growth. Household consumption also remains a key growth driver. Against the backdrop of decreased consumer confidence, households save on average about 5% of their income, partly as a buffer for financial setbacks and partly for mortgage loan repayments or to purchase a home.

House prices will rise by over 7% in 2025, mainly due to higher wages that enable buyers to borrow and bid more, with persistent tightness in the housing market also playing a role.

Inflation falls

Looking ahead, we expect inflation to fall below 3% over the course of 2025, due to the global economic slowdown, lower energy prices and the appreciation of the euro, which makes imports cheaper. Domestic factors such as the cooling economy and slowing wage growth also contribute to lower inflation. This means inflation in the Netherlands will remain above the inflation rate for the euro area in the years ahead. The difference is mainly due to domestic factors: strong demand, high wage growth and rent increases. The projections still assume a freeze on rents in the social housing sector. Now that this legislative proposal has been withdrawn, inflation is expected to be slightly higher in 2025 and 2026.  

DNB publishes projections for the Dutch economy for the current year and the next two years. We create these together with the European Central Bank (ECB) and other central banks in the euro area. The ECB aggregates national projections into macroeconomic projections for the euro area as a whole. This is how we contribute to the ECB’s decision-making on monetary policy. Every six months, we also share our national forecasts and analyses by publishing our Spring and Autumn Projections. Based on our projections and analyses, we provide advice on economic issues to the government and other policymakers. Our Spring and Autumn Projections provide insight into the basis of this advice, as do our studies.

We prepare our projections for the Dutch economy using a macroeconomic model called DELFI. We also use this model to assess the consequences of changes in economic policy or economic conditions. Want to try your hand at creating your own projections? Get behind the controls of the Dutch economy with our DELFI Tool and discover, for example, the consequences of higher energy prices or higher wages.

DNB uses several models to estimate the short-term economic outlook.

Using our DFROG nowcasting model, we estimate the current development of the Dutch economy.

With the DNB business cycle indicator, transition points in the Dutch economy can be spotted in time, indicating a change in the growth phase.