The DNB business cycle indicator shows the economic phase towards which the Dutch economy is moving. The dark blue dots in the figure are the months predicted by the indicator. They indicate that in those months the economy remains in an expansion phase. Mid-2026 the indicator is close to a turning point towards slowdown.
© DNB
Expansion: economic growth is accelerating and is higher than trend growth.
Slowdown: economic growth is above trend, but slowing down.
Downturn: Economic growth is slowing down and is lower than trend growth.
Recovery: economic growth is below trend but is picking up.
The DNB business cycle indicator looks up to six months ahead. The indicator is composed of five components: the interest rate, consumer confidence in the economy, the business activity expected in Germany, the development of new orders from producers and the materials they purchase.
The following figure shows the DNB business cycle indicator in a different way and over a longer period of time. The indicator (red line) signals timely changes in the economic growth cycle (blue line). In this way, the lines show the transition from one growth phase to another.
The indicator crossed the horizontal line mid 2025. This means that the economy has come in an expansion phase from that point onward. The indicator is leveling off in 2026. This shows that the expansion loses momentum.
© DNB
The transition from expansion to deceleration (from decline to recovery) means a reversal in the indicator at the top (in the trough).
The transition from recovery to expansion (from slowdown to decline) means that the indicator intersects the horizontal axis upward (downward).
The DNB business cycle indicator is designed to predict tipping points that indicate a transition to a different growth phase. It was not created to predict the GDP growth rate.
Data output DNB Business cycle indicator
24 December 2025
News
The size of financial relations between the Netherlands and other countries has grown further this year, as revealed by new figures from De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB).
Read more The Netherlands remains financially closely intertwined with other countries
19 December 2025
Background
The figures paint a remarkably positive picture: the Dutch economy is growing faster than expected. But where do we really stand, and what can the government do to address factors that are constraining further growth? Below, we discuss five figures from our Autumn Projections.
Read more The Dutch economy in five figures: where do we stand?
19 December 2025
Press release
Growth in the Dutch economy is significantly higher this year than expected in the spring. Whereas economic growth for 2025 was estimated at 1.1% last June, it is now projected to be 1.7%. This is evident from the Autumn Projections, published today by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB).
Read more Dutch economy shows remarkably higher growth
15 December 2025
News
New figures from De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) show that income from foreign direct investment and royalties channelled through the Netherlands to low-tax jurisdictions continued to fall in 2024.
Read more Corporate profits flowing to tax havens via the Netherlands continue to decline
