DNB maintains the countercyclical capital buffer at 2%

The countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) is intended to increase banks’ resilience when cyclical risks build up and to release the buffer once risks materialize. This helps limit the impact of a crisis on the real economy. As outlined in the framework, DNB aims for a CCyB of 2% in a standard risk environment. This refers to an environment in which cyclical systemic risks are neither particularly high nor particularly low. As part of its assessment of cyclical risks, DNB uses indicators with strong predictive power for the financial-economic cycle in the Netherlands (see figure 1 below this release). This assessment is not mechanical and relies on guided discretion, where developments in the dashboard are supplemented with additional insights or analysis where relevant. 

Risk assessment

Our analysis shows that cyclical systemic risks in the Netherlands are currently neither particularly high nor low. Most indicators in the dashboard (see figure 1) are around typical levels from a historical perspective (between the 25th and 75th percentile), consistent with a standard risk environment. Furthermore, the Dutch banking sector remains financially robust, and we see no signs that cyclical systemic risks are materializing.

DNB therefore concludes that the current cyclical risk landscape remains consistent with a standard risk environment, in line with the current CCyB level of 2%. This level is above the 0% implied by the Basel buffer guide. However, the Basel buffer guide is based solely on one indicator, namely credit growth relative to its long-term trend (credit-to-GDP gap). As explained in the framework, DNB bases its decision on a broader assessment instead of only the credit-to-GDP gap. Based on currently available information, DNB does not expect changes in the risk outlook in the near term that would warrant a change in the CCyB. DNB will reassess the cyclical risk outlook and the level of the CCyB in September 2026.

Further clarification individual indicators

The macro-economic environment remains consistent with a standard risk environment. Economic growth in the Netherlands is positive, and the unemployment rate remains low. Looking ahead, growth this year is forecasted to be below the level of last year, partially due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the energy supply (see Spring Projections). Economic growth is forecasted to improve again next year, but elevated economic uncertainty remains a key downside risk.

Credit growth in the Netherlands has been positive for several quarters, with real credit growth to households reaching its highest level since mid-2021. Especially bank lending has grown relatively strongly, suggesting no signs of constraints in bank credit supply. At the same time, DNB sees no heightened cyclical risks stemming from credit developments, as seen in the still negative Basel credit-to-GDP gap and stable debt service ratios.  

Asset price developments remain consistent with a picture of persistently elevated valuations and a potential build-up of cyclical risks. Property prices continue to increase at a robust pace, both in the residential (+9%) and commercial sector (+7%). Looking ahead, DNB forecasts more moderate increases in residential property prices (see Spring Projections). In financial markets, low risk premia and elevated asset valuations continue to indicate strong risk appetite, both in the Netherlands and globally.

Finally, the Dutch banking sector maintains solid (capital) buffers, while robust profitability also supports the resilience of Dutch banks going forward. Despite elevated economic uncertainty, credit losses have remained contained, with the share of non-performing loans at low levels historically.

Notes: The color coding indicates the position of an indicator in its historical distribution (1997-present, bank lending margins from 2003). Blue indicates a value <25th percentile, green a value between the 25th and 75th percentile, and red a value >75th percentile. For the indicator “unemployment rate” and all indicators in the category “risk premiums” the color coding is inverted, meaning low values are equivalent to higher risks. All numbers are as of June 16, 2025.

Data sources: CBS, Datastream, DNB, ECB, FRED, OECD, DNB calculations.