2026 Spring Projections

Lower economic growth

The Dutch economy is set to grow at a significantly slower pace in 2026, due to geopolitical tensions and soaring energy prices. The war in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in oil prices and disruptions to the energy supply, putting a brake on economic growth. Gross domestic product is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2026, which is markedly lower than in 2025. The economy is expected to pick up in the years that follow, partly as a result of falling energy prices and reduced uncertainty.

Inflation

Although inflation is falling compared with 2025, at 2.7% this year it remains higher than the previously projected 2.4%. Rising energy prices are a major factor in this development, although their impact is less pronounced than during previous energy crises. This is because the economy is less dependent on oil than it was in the past. Also, the current situation – with the economy and labour market cooling off – is different from that seen in previous periods of high inflation. From 2027 onwards, inflation will continue to fall gradually, but will remain above 2% throughout the projection horizon.

Public finances

The government is acting as the main driver of economic growth this year, partly due to rising public spending on healthcare and defence. As a result, the budget deficit this year will rise above the European limit of 3% of GDP. In the longer term, public finances will remain under pressure due to rising expenditure and structural challenges.

Consumption and saving

Households have become more cautious as higher prices are restricting their purchasing power. Due to declining confidence in the economy, households are setting aside a larger proportion of their income. As a result, consumption is stagnating in 2026. In 2027 and 2028, consumption growth is projected to pick up as uncertainty eases and energy prices fall.

Business investment

Firms are also reluctant. Higher costs, uncertainty and rising interest rates are holding back investment growth. At the same time, exports of goods and services are growing at a lower rate, partly because global trade growth is slowing down. From 2027 onwards, this situation will gradually improve. Both investment and exports will then pick up, as global trade recovers and economic uncertainty eases. Economic growth in the Netherlands should also be more broadly-based then.

Download the Spring Projections 2026 in Dutch below. English version forthcoming.