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2019 - Programme Uncertainty and Non-linearities: Policy Challenges and New Perspectives

22nd Annual DNB Research Conference Uncertainty and Non-linearities: Policy Challenges and New Perspectives.

De Nederlandsche Bank, 30 September - 1 October 2019

MONDAY, 30 September 2019 - Board room at DNB

8:45-9:30 Registration with coffee/tea

9:30-9:45 Opening address: Klaas Knot
(Governor, De Nederlandsche Bank)

SESSION I: Inspecting the transmission mechanism: roots and consequences of price stickiness

Chair: Andrea Colciago (DNB, University of Milano Bicocca)  

9:45-10:45 Paralyzed by fear: rigid and discrete pricing under demand uncertainty
by Cosmin Ilut (Duke University), Rosen Valchev (Boston College) and Nicolas Vincent (HEC Montreal)   Paper     Presentation
Discussant: Krisztina Molnar (Norwegian School of Economics)   Presentation

10:45-11:15 Coffee break  

11:15-12:15 Sticky prices and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: a minimal test of New Keynesian models
by Timo Haber (University of Cambridge) and Guido Ascari (University of Oxford)   Paper    Presentation
Discussant: Anton Nakov (European Central Bank) Presentation

12:15-13:30 Lunch in Foyer  

13:30-14:30 Keynote peech: Routes to Nonlinearity in Equilibrium Business Cycle Models
Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania)   Presentation

SESSION II: Uncertainty shocks

Chair: Gabriele Galati (DNB)  

14:30-15:30 Uncertainty, real activity, and risk aversion during the Great Recession by Giovanni Pellegrino (Aarhus University), Giovanni Caggiano (Monash University) and Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Melbourne)   Paper     Presentation
Discussant: Kostantinos Theodoridis (Cardiff Business School)   Presentation

15:30-16:00 Coffee break  

16:00-17:30 Policy Panel: Athanasios Orphanides (MIT), Ulf Soderstrom (Sveriges Riksbank), Frank Smets (European Central Bank)   Presentation Athanasios Orphanides    Presentation Frank Smets
Moderator: Jakob De Haan (DNB, University of Groningen)  

18:30-21:30 Conference Dinner (by invitation only)

TUESDAY, 1 October 2019 “ Board room at DNB

8:45-9:15 Registration with coffee/tea

SESSION II: Uncertainty shocks

Chair: Gabriele Galati (DNB)

09.15-10:15 The impact of uncertainty and certainty shocks
by Yves S. Schüler (Deutsche Bundesbank)   Paper    Presentation
Discussant: Andreas Pick (Erasmus University Rotterdam, DNB)   Presentation

SESSION III: Monetary policy under incomplete information

Chair: Tjerk Kroes (DNB, Head of Policy and Research)  

10:15-11:15 Indeterminacy and imperfect information
by Thomas Lubik (Richmond Fed), Christian Matthes (Indiana University) and Elmar Mertens (Deutsche Bundesbank)   Paper    Presentation
Discussant: Mark Weder (Aarhus University)    Presentation

11:15-11:30 Coffee break  

11:30-12:30 Can more public information raise uncertainty? The international evidence on forward guidance
by Michael Ehrmann (European Central Bank), Gaetano Gaballo (Banque de France), Peter Hoffmann (European Central Bank) and Georg Strasser (European Central Bank)   Paper    Presentation
Discussant: Kostas Mavromatis (DNB)  

12:30-13:30 Lunch in Foyer  

13.30-14:30 Keynote speech: Uncertainty and Economic Policy: Climate Change
Lars Hansen (University of Chicago)   Presentation

14:30-15:00 Coffee break

SESSION IV: Subjective beliefs and the business cycle

Chair: Peter Van Els (DNB)

15:00-16:00 Survey data and subjective beliefs in business cycle models
by Anmol Bhandari (University of Minnesota), Jaroslav Borovicka (New York University) and Paul Ho (Richmond Fed)   Paper    Presentation
Discussant: Riccardo Masolo (Bank of England)   Presentation

16.00-16.15 Coffee break  

16:15-17:15 Fear of secular stagnation and the natural interest rate
by Paolo Bonomolo (DNB) and Valentina Gavazza (Stockholm University)   Paper    Presentation
Discussant: Oreste Tristani (European Central Bank) Presentation