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2022 - Programme Inflation Strikes Back: Drivers and Policy Reactions

10-11 November, 2022 - 25th Annual Research Conference of the Dutch Central Bank

Venue: Artis, Plantage Kerklaan 38-40 CZ, Amsterdam

10th November 2022

9:15-9:30 Opening address
Klaas Knot (President, De Nederlandsche Bank)

Session I: Inflation and policy

Chair: Tjerk Kroes (DNB, Head of Economic Policy and Research Division)

9:30-10:15 A fiscal theory of trend inflation

Francesco Bianchi (Johns Hopkins University, CEPR and NBER), Renato Faccini
(Danmarks Nationalbank), and Leonardo Melosi (FRB Chicago and CEPR)
Discussion by Davide De Bortoli (UPF and Barcelona School of Economics)

10:15-11:00 Looking through supply shocks versus controlling inflation expectations: Understanding the Central Bank Dilemma

Paul Beaudry (Bank of Canada), Thomas Carter (Bank of Canada), and
Amartya Lahiri (University of British Columbia)
Discussion by Frank Smets (ECB)

11:30-12:30 Keynote speech: Inflation puzzles

Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School and IFRS Foundation)
Chair: Aerdt Houben (DNB, Head of Financial Markets Division)

Session II: Explaining the recent U.S. inflation surge

Chair: Niels Gilbert (DNB, Head of Monetary Policy Department)

13:30-14:15 Understanding U.S. inflation during the COVID era

Laurence Ball (Johns Hopkins University), Daniel Leigh (IMF), and
Prachi Mishra (IMF)
Discussion by Chiara Osbat (ECB)

14:15-15:00 The inflationary effects of sectoral reallocation

Francesco Ferrante (Federal Reserve Board), Sebastian Graves (Federal Reserve
Board), and Matteo Iacoviello (Federal Reserve Board)
Discussion by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi (Bank of England)

15:00-15:45 Relative price shocks and inflation

Francisco Ruge-Murcia (McGill University) and Alexander Wolman (FRB Richmond)
Discussion by Anton Nakov (ECB)

16:15-17:30 Policy panel: Janet Henry (HSBC), Argia Sbordone (FRB New York), and
Chiara Osbat (ECB)

Moderator: Olaf Sleijpen (DNB, Chief Economist)

11th November 2022

Session I: Monetary policy, r* and inflation

Chair: Guido Ascari (DNB and University of Pavia)

9:00-9:45 Optimal monetary policy with r* < 0

Roberto Billi (Sveriges Riksbank), Jordi Galí (CREI, UPF and BSE), and
Anton Nakov (ECB)
Discussion by Salvatore Nisticò (Sapienza University of Rome)

9:45-10:30 Subjective housing expectations, falling natural rates and the optimal
inflation target

Klaus Adam (University of Mannheim), Oliver Pfaeuti (University of Mannheim),
and Timo Reinelt (University of Mannheim)
Discussion by Krisztina Molnar (Norwegian School of Economics)

10:30-11:30 Break and poster sessions

  • Energy prices and household heterogeneity: Monetary policy in a
    Gas-TANK, Jenny Chan (Bank of England), Sebastian Diz (Central Bank of
    Paraguay), and Derrick Kanngiesser (Bank of England)
  • Granular inflation expectations and behavioral inattention: Implications for
    optimal monetary policy, Alexander Dietrich (University of Tubingen)
  • De-anchored inflation expectations and monetary policy, Johannes
    Fischer (Bank of England)
  • Inflation measured every day keeps adverse responses away: Temporal
    aggregation and monetary policy transmission, Margaret Jacobson (Federal
    Reserve Board), Christian Matthes (Indiana University), and Todd Walker (Indiana
  • Global supply chain pressures, inflation and implications for monetary
    policy, Dennis Bonam (DNB and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) and Andra Smadu
    (DNB and University of Groningen

Session II: Inflation and uncertainty

Chair: Maurice Bun (DNB, Head of Research Department)

11:30-12:15 Firm dynamics, demand amplification and endogenous price flexibility

Makram Khalil (Deutsche Bundesbank) and Vivien Lewis (Deutsche Bundesbank
and CEPR)
Discussion by Jim Costain (Bank of Spain)

12:15-13:00 Endogenous uncertainty as transmission channel of shocks to inflation

Guido Ascari (DNB and University of Pavia), Stefano Fasani (Lancaster University),
Jakob Grazzini (University of Pavia), and Lorenza Rossi (Lancaster University)
Discussion by Benjamin Born (Frankfurt School of Finance and CEPR)

14:00-15:00 Keynote speech: Price setting away from zero inflation

Fernando Alvarez (University of Chicago)
Chair: Guido Ascari (DNB and University of Pavia)

Session III: Inflation expectations

Chair: Gabriele Galati (DNB, Senior Policy Advisor Monetary Policy Department)

15:30-16:15 Greater than the sum of its parts: Aggregate vs. aggregated
inflation expectations

Alexander Dietrich (University of Tuebingen), Edward Knotek II (FRB Cleveland),
Kristian Ove Myrseth (FRB Cleveland), Robert Rich (FRB Cleveland),
Raphael Schoenle (Brandeis University), and Michael Weber (University of Chicago
Booth School of Business)
Discussion by Margaret Jacobson (Federal Reserve Board)

16:15-17:00 Reactions of household inflation expectations to a symmetric inflation
target and high inflation

Gabriele Galati (DNB), Richhild Moessner (BIS), and Maarten van Rooij (DNB)
Discussion by Agnieszka Markiewicz (Erasmus School of Economics)