400 - Systematic tail risk
We test for the presence of a systematic tail risk premium in the cross-section of expected returns by applying a measure on the sensitivity of assets to extreme market downturns, the tail beta. Empirically, historical tail betas help to predict the future performance of stocks under extreme market downturns. During a market crash, stocks with historically high tail betas suffer losses that are approximately 2 to 3 times larger than their low tail beta counterparts. However, we find no evidence of a premium associated with tail betas. The theoretically additive and empirically persistent tail betas can help to assess portfolio tail risks.
Keywords: Tail beta, systematic risk, asset pricing, Extreme Value Theory, risk management.
JEL Classification Numbers: G11, G12.
Working paper no. 400
- Maarten van Oordt
- Chen Zhou