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29 augustus 2019 Onderzoek Toezichtlabel Working Papers
We shed new light on the anchoring of long-term euro area inflation expectations since the crisis by using micro evidence from a new survey at high (weekly) frequency. We find that long-term inflation expectations remained well anchored to the ECBs inflation aim, which has acted as a focal point. By contrast, we find no evidence that professional forecasts (reported by Consensus Economics) acted as focal points. But there are subtle signs of long-term inflation expectations not being perfectly well-anchored. Using measures based on the distribution of inflation expectations from a quarterly survey, namely uncertainty based on the full distribution, the probability of expected long-term inflation lying between 1.5% and 2.5%, and the effect of short-term on long-term deflation risk, we find that long-term euro area inflation expectations have remained well-anchored, and have become better-anchored between 2011 and 2018.  
 
Keywords: Inflation expectations.
JEL classification: E31, E58, F62.
Working paper no. 652

652 - Inflation expectations anchoring: new insights from micro evidence of a survey at high-frequency and of distributions

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authors

  • Nikos Apokoritis
  • Gabriele Galati
  • Richhild Moessner
  • Federica Teppa