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15 december 2014 Onderzoek Toezichtlabel Working Papers

We derive optimal  weights for Markov switching models by weighting observations such that forecasts are optimal in the MSFE sense. We provide analytic expressions of the weights conditional on the Markov states and conditional on state probabilities. This allows us to study the effect of  uncertainty  around states on forecasts. It emerges that, even in large samples, forecasting performance increases substantially when the construction of optimal weights takes uncertainty around states into account. Performance of the  optimal weights is shown through simulations and an application to US GNP, where using optimal weights leads to significant reductions in MSFE.
 
Keywords:  Markov switching models, forecasting, optimal weights, GNP forecasting.
JEL classification: C25, C53, E37.

Working paper no. 452

452 - Optimal forecasts from Markov switching models

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authors

  • Tom Boot
  • Andreas Pick